Service Plays Thursday 08/06/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

THURSDAY, AUGUST 6

NATIONAL LEAGUE


Atlanta (55-53) at L.A. Dodgers (66-42)

The Dodgers, still carrying the best record in the major leagues, send left-hander Randy Wolf (5-6, 3.54 ERA) to the mound to open a four-game series against the Braves, who will counter with former Dodger Derek Lowe (11-7, 4.21) in a pitching rematch from Saturday.

Los Angeles got a leadoff home run from Rafael Furcal in the bottom of the first inning Wednesday, but couldn’t muster anything after that and fell 4-1 to the Brewers. The Dodgers have followed up a five-game winning streak by losing eight of their last 13, going 2-4 at home during this stretch. Still, Joe Torre’s club is on runs of 55-27 at home and 63-32 as a favorite.

Atlanta posted a 6-2 victory Wednesday at San Diego to take the final two games of a three-game set with the Padres. The Braves have split their last 10 contests and they’re on a 3-7 slide in their last 10 as a road pup.

These teams just met last weekend for the first time this season, with the Dodgers taking two of three in Atlanta. Despite those results, the host has still taken six of the last nine in this rivalry, with L.A. winning two of three at Dodger Stadium last year.

The Dodgers were on a 10-4 tear behind Wolf before losing his last two starts, both on the road. On Saturday in Atlanta, the southpaw gave up three runs on nine hits and two walks in six innings of a 4-3 loss. Wolf is 1-2 with a 3.91 ERA and a rash of no-decisions in 11 home starts this year, and he’s just 4-12 with a 5.32 ERA in 26 career appearances (24 starts) against Atlanta.

With Wolf throwing at home, Los Angeles is on positive streaks of 14-4 overall (8-3 this season) and 12-3 when the lefty is favored, and the Dodgers are on a 7-3 overall run with Wolf throwing in series openers.

The Braves have won five in a row backing Lowe, with the consistent right-hander throwing six innings each time and going 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA. Lowe was on the winning end against Wolf last Saturday, allowing all three runs on five hits and two walks. Lowe is 6-5 with a 4.52 ERA in 11 road starts this season, and he’s 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in three career starts against Los Angeles. Additionally, Lowe, who pitched for L.A. from 2005-2008, has made 68 appearances (66 starts) at Dodger Stadium, going 33-23 with a 3.21 ERA.

The over for Los Angeles is on runs of 6-2-1 at home and 7-2 with Wolf facing N.L. East foes, but the under is 8-3 in L.A.’s last 11 home outings versus winning teams, and the under for the Braves is on stretches of 6-2 against lefty starters and 10-4-1 behind Lowe. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 7-2 in the last nine clashes overall, but the over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings at Dodger Stadium.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS



AMERICAN LEAGUE


Boston (62-44) at N.Y. Yankees (65-42)

The first-place Yankees give the ball to right-hander Joba Chamberlain (7-2, 3.58 ERA) in the opener of a four-game series in the Bronx against the rival Red Sox, who will start struggling veteran John Smoltz (2-4, 7.12).

New York returns home after going 5-4 on a nine-game road swing, following a three-game skid in the middle of the trip by winning the last three games, including two in a row at Toronto. The Yankees, who rode a four-run seventh inning to an 8-4 victory, are on a batch of positive runs, including 27-10 overall, 7-1 versus the A.L. East, 5-1 in series openers, 43-18 at home and 18-8 against winning teams. Joe Girardi’s team has a 2½-game lead over Boston in the A.L. East.

Boston followed a four-game win streak by losing the last two nights at Tampa Bay, including Wednesday’s 6-4 setback. Still, the Sox remain on upswings of 27-12 in division play, 42-17 on Thursday and 33-16 in series openers. They’ve also owned the rivalry with the Yanks lately, winning nine in a row, including all eight meetings this year, and they are on a 4-1 surge at Yankee Stadium (2-0 this year).

The Yankees have won three in a row and six of seven with Chamberlain starting. On July 29 at Tampa, the righty threw eight innings of three-hit shutout ball, with two walks and five strikeouts, in a 6-2 victory. It was Chamberlain’s third straight win, and he’s allowed just two runs in 21 2/3 innings over that stretch, for a minuscule 0.83 ERA.

Chamberlain is 2-2 with a 4.37 ERA in 11 home starts this year, and he’s 2-1 with a 3.49 ERA in eight career appearances (four starts) against Boston, with New York losing his two starts versus the Sox this season. With Chamberlain toeing the slab, the Pinstripes are on rolls of 14-3 at new Yankee Stadium, 5-0 in division contests and 6-1 against winning teams.

The Sox are 2-5 this season behind Smoltz, who returned to the lineup the last week of June. Last Friday, Smoltz gave up five runs on eight hits in six innings, but that was good enough to get the win in a 6-5 victory at Baltimore. Still, the 42-year-old is 1-2 with a 7.40 ERA in four road starts this season, and he’s 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA in two career regular-season interleague starts against New York.

The under is 6-2-2 in the last 10 meetings in this rivalry, and the under for Boston is on streaks of 8-3 on the road and 20-9-1 against winning teams. However, the over is 7-2 in the last nine overall for the Red Sox, and with Chamberlain starting for the Yanks, the over is on upswings of 5-2 overall and 8-3-1 at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

August 6, 2009

The 'dogs are no longer Hondo's best friends, not after the Orioles and Rockies betrayed him last night to increase the deficit to a monstrous 500 radatzes.

Tonight, he's expecting the Yankees to make life miserable for Old Man Smoltz and the Sawx -- 10 units on Chamberlain.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Giants Wednesday.

Today it's the Phillies. The surplus is 875 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Twins
Angels

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Ferrall

MLB FREE PICKS FOR THURSDAY
PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )


Colorado (Cook)

PHILADELPHIA (LEE) -170 (1)



Boston (Smoltz)

YANKEES (CHAMBERLAIN) -165 (2)



Mets (Hernandez)

SAN DIEGO (RICHARD) -135 (3)



RUN TOTALS

Colorado / Philadelphia UNDER 8 ½

Mets / San Diego OVER 7 ½

Angels / White Sox UNDER 9 ½

Baltimore / Detroit UNDER 9 ½

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports
52-28 run on Bonus Plays

Thurs Fla Marlins

 

[mp5070]

John Morrison

Official Play

8/6 New York Yankees [A]
Boston

Note: We win 97% of the time on just the [A] or bets alone! We've won 7 out of
our last 8 [A] bets. In our last 12 [A] bets that we've made, we've won 10 (!!) of them!

Last year in the MLB, 18 of our last 20 wins were all won with just the [A] bets!

 

[cork999]

Jeff Benton
Thursday's MLB Game of the Year winner ... 30 DIME: YANKEES (Chamberlain) on the run line (-1 1/2 runs) over Red Sox (Smoltz)

NOTE: Both Joba Chamberlain (New York) and John Smoltz (Boston) must start this game or this play is VOID!


Yankees (-1½ runs)

It’s time. It’s time for the New York Yankees to finally get the best of their hated rivals – and do so in blowout fashion!

As I’m sure you know by now, Boston has won all eight meetings in this rivalry this season and nine in a row dating to last September. However, it must be noted that seven of those nine wins came at Fenway Park (this is just the third meeting of the season at new Yankee Stadium). It also must be noted that these squads haven’t met in nearly two months, and in the interim, the Yankees have been playing some of the best baseball in the league.

In fact, after getting swept in Boston from June 9-11 (the final two losses being by a single runs), New York went on to lose six of its next 10 games. But since then, the Bronx Bombers are 27-10 overall, including 14-3 at home, and 10 of those 14 home victories were by multiple runs. One of the reasons for the Yankees’ turnaround? The pitching of Joba Chamberlain.

Going back to June 7, Chamberlain has made 10 starts and New York has won eight of them, with the right-hander giving up three earned runs or fewer in nine of the 10 games. Most recently, Chamberlain has been virtually unhittable, going 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA in his last three starts (two runs allowed on eight hits while striking out 19 in 21 2/3 innings. During this 10-start stretch, the Yankees are 6-1 behind Chamberlain at home (4-0 last four), and his home ERA is 3.72 over those seven games. That might not look that great, but trust me – with the way the ball flies out of new Yankee Stadium, that 3.72 ERA looks like 2.72.

Granted, Chamberlain hasn’t been all that sharp in his two starts against Boston this year, giving up six runs (five earned) on 15 hits in 11 innings. However, when he faced the Sox at home on May 5, 12 of the 17 outs he recorded were via strikeout – that should tell you how dominant his stuff can be! In fact, in four career starts against Boston, Chamberlain has notched 28 strikeouts (vs. 11 walks) in 24 innings, with the Yankees going 2-2.

Of course, Chamberlain isn’t the only guy who will be on the mound tonight. His counterpart is the washed-up John Smoltz. The right-hander has been a complete mess since joining Boston’s rotation in June, going 2-4 with a 7.12 ERA in seven starts. In his last three outings, he allowed 17 runs (all earned) in 16 2/3 innings (9.18 ERA), and he served up six home runs in those three games. That last stat is very disturbing considering Smoltz is facing the team that’s hit the second most home runs this year in a ballpark that’s been a launching pad since the day it opened.

Bottom line: As far as I’m concerned, you can totally disregard Boston’s 9-0 run against the Yankees. Why? Because these are two completely different clubs than they were when they last met two months ago. Also, the Red Sox’s two best pitchers – Jon Lester and Josh Beckett – started five of Boston’s eight wins over New York this season. Finally, after losing in Tampa Bay the last two days, the Red Sox are now just 2-9 in their last 11 games against clubs near or above .500 (Tampa Bay, Texas, Toronto and Seattle). Put it another way, 12 of their last 13 wins have come against Baltimore, Kansas City and Oakland – the three last-place teams in the American League who are a combined 54 games under .500!

Throw in the fact that the Yankees are on runs of 17-4 against right-handed starters, 7-1 against A.L. East foes and 14-3 in Chamberlain’s last 17 home starts, and I’m ALL OVER the Bombers tonight. Lay the 1½ runs and watch the Yanks pummel Smoltz and give their fans a blowout win of at least four runs!



BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY IRONHORSE AND ME----------GL GUYS

 

[Yanks]

RatedPicks

MLB:

Colorado Rockies +155 2units
Fl. Marlins/Wash Natl's OVER 8.5 3units
Det Tigers -130 3units
*BP*Arizona D'backs -120 5units
Arizona D'Backs RL -1.5 +135 3units

 

[fly73]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dunkel

Today's MLB Picks

Florida at Washington

The Marlins look to salvage a game in the series and build on their 13-3 record in their last 16 games as a favorite between -110 and -150. Florida is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Florida (-135). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 6

Game 951-952: Florida at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 15.513; Washington (Stammen) 15.131
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-135); Over
Game 953-954: Colorado at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 15.118; Philadelphia (Lee) 16.265
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-185); Under
Game 955-956: Arizona at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Scherzer) 16.480; Pittsburgh (Hart) 13.231
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 3; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-120); Over
Game 957-958: NY Mets at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hernandez) 16.051; San Diego (Richard) 13.132
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 3; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Over
Game 959-960: Atlanta at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 16.249; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 15.246
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+130); Under
Game 961-962: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.603; Cleveland (Carmona) 16.818
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+125); Under
Game 963-964: Baltimore at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hernandez) 14.835; Detroit (Porcello) 14.519
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+135); Under
Game 965-966: LA Angels at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 16.751; White Sox (Danks) 17.006
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-150); Over
Game 967-968: Texas at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Hunter) 14.926; Oakland (Cahill) 14.284
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-130); Under
Game 969-970: Boston at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Smoltz) 15.683; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 16.516
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-170); Over
Game 971-972: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 14.027; Kansas City (Chen) 14.125
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); Over




WNBA Basketball Picks

Seattle at Los Angeles

The Storm look to bounce back from their overtime defeat against Phoenix and build on their 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 games following a SU loss. Seattle is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 6

Game 601-602: Atlanta at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 109.478; San Antonio 115.603
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 146 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4 1/2; 156 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-4 1/2); Under
Game 603-604: Seattle at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 111.518; Los Angeles 111.856
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 133
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 136
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2 1/2); Under

 

[fly73]

Joe Wiz

Bonus Plays

Mets/SD Under
Atl/LAD Under
Marlins

 

[str8flush95]

Fastball - Best Bets

NYY over BOS
SEA over KC

 

[Yanks]

The Sports Investing Professional - Thursday

Tuesday Recap - The blind squirrel finally found a nut. Actually we finally
played a team with a manager who KNOWS WHAT THE FU** HE'S DOING
Notice how Bobby Cox goes right to his QUALITY bullpen guys even with a
4 run lead...not F'n around with his hack squad. That's how you prevent from
getting blown up for 6 runs in the 8th, Florida, hope you paid attention.

Todays Play(s) - We do have what I feel is a real strong play today.
Texas, a very good team, has been a little beat up by Oakland....not a real
good team. They've got Hunter on the mound today who aside from
Millwood is probably their best and Cahill has been really roughed up
as of late. I like the matchup and like the price...lets get our second win
in a row and head into a big weekend.


MLB - Texas Rangers -130 [LISTED] Hunter / Cahill 975.00 / 750.00


May The Ball Bounce Your Way,

The Sports Investing Professional


Record (25-17) +329

 

[Yanks]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Thursday Plays (1000* 3-Team NO LIMIT Day/Night Parlay)

MLB Baseball 1000* Play Minnesota (-145) over Cleveland (MLB TOP PLAY PARLAY)

Cleveland has lost 52 of the last 86 day games and they have also lost 48 of the last 77 games vs. right-handed starting pitchers. Cleveland has lost 61 of the last 104 games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs and they have also lost 4 of the last 7 games overall. Fausto Carmona is 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 10.64 and he has an ERA of 5.24 vs. Minnesota over his career. Nick Blackburn is 4-0 vs. Cleveland over his career with an ERA of 1.30.


1000* Play Philadelphia (-165) over Colorado (MLB TOP PLAY PARLAY) Philadelphia has

won 46 of the last 63 games as a home favorite of -150 to -200 and Cliff Lee has won 19 of the last 25 games when playing on a Thursday. Cliff Lee has won 8 of the last 9 games as a home favorite of -150 to -175 and he is also 3-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 1.44. Aaron Cook has lost 5 of the last 6 games as a road underdog of +150 or higher and he is also 1-4 vs. Philadelphia over his career with an ERA of 6.10.


1000* Play New York Yankees (-185) over Boston (MLB TOP PLAY PARLAY)

Joba Chamberlain has won 8 of the last 9 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has also won 9 of the last 11 home games. Joba Chamberlain has won 12 of the last 16 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he is also 3-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 0.83. John Smoltz has lost 8 of the last 9 games when he did not walk a batter in the previous game and he is also 1-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 9.18.



WNBA HOOPS 50* Play Atlanta (+5) over San Antonio (WNBA Hoops Play)

Atlanta has covered the spread in 9 consecutive games and they have also covered the spread in 9 of the last 11 games when playing as an underdog. San Antonio has lost 9 of the last 10 games against the spread coming off a road win vs. a division opponent and they have also lost 22 of the last 32 games against the spread after playing two straight games as a road underdog.

 

[Yanks]

Charlie

mlb. florida @ washington under 8' runs, rockies @ phillies under 8' runs & baltimore @ detroit under 9' runs ( 500* 3 team rd robin).
mlb. detroit-140 (30*)
mlb. minnesota-135 (20*)
mlb. dodgers-135 (20*)
mlb. arizona-135 (10*)

mlb. texas-125 (10*) Bonus Play

 

[PokerFace]

Steve Merril

Tigers under 9.5

 

[steelers7]

Fazzini

Thursday's play 10 Dime -- Braves (Lowe) over DODGERS (Wolf)

BRAVES
NOTE: List only Lowe as Atlanta's starting pitcher

I won with this same pitching matchup Saturday, and I expect the same result today.

Former Dodger Derek Lowe (11-7, 4.21 ERA) has been throwing the ball as well as he has all season, going 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA over his last five starts. He allowed three runs and five hits in six innings in Saturday's 4-3 victory over Los Angeles.

The veteran sinkerballer has pitched well at Dodger Stadium in his career, going 33-23 with a 3.21 ERA in 66 starts, including 9-5 with a 2.30 ERA in 17 outings there last year.

Dodgers starter Randy Wolf (5-6, 3.47) didn't pitch too badly Saturday at Atlanta, allowing four runs and nine hits with seven strikeouts in six innings to take the loss.

The left-hander hasn't fared too well against the Braves in his career, going 4-12 with a 5.32 ERA lifetime against them. He is 0-5 with a 7.31 ERA in his last 10 starts against them, including 0-3 with a 7.41 ERA in his last three starts.

With Lowe's success lately and at Dodger Stadium, this one seems like too good a value to turn down. Take the Braves today.

 

[Yanks]

MLB Computer Picks

Florida Marlins -150

Colorado Rockies +155

Los Angeles Dodgers -130

 

[Djitow]

Krunchtimepicks Steve Jabby 250 Dime Play
Detroit Tigers Under 9.5

GL